I have a very 19th Century view of celebrities; they’re vagabonds who are entertaining to watch but not worth listening to. As for technology and buzzwords, I’ve never been inclined towards programming, nor do I like jargon much. Four years in the military disinclined me towards jargon.
My interest is mainly how cryptocurrencies and tokens are becoming stores of value and hedges against idiotic monetary and social policies. That’s been pretty evident in the United States, where people who received stimulus checks to pay their rent told their landlords to screw off and bought Bitcoin or Dogecoin.
Politics in Germany
In one of my last articles, I talked about inflation and monetary policies in America, but what about in Europe, particularly Germany? Inflation (driven by higher oil, labor, and land prices) in Germany is higher than it has been since the early 90s just after the Berlin Wall fell, and there is no sign it will go down. Additionally, Germans pay 0.6 percent in taxes on their savings accounts. Inflation and this regressive tax are eating away at the German middle class.
Elections in Germany are coming up, and it is very possible that the Bundestag is going to get a real shake-up. There are two possible outcomes. One, the center-right will win the election and form a coalition. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, when things have been this bad, that’s exactly what Germans did. In the early 90s when inflation in Germany was running above five percent, they got a coalition government of the CDU, CSU, and FDP, all of which are center-right parties, and six more years of Chancellor Helmut Kohl. After the 2008-09 recession, the Germans put these three parties in charge again, this time with Angela Merkel at the helm. Both times, these parties brought inflation down.
This Time It’s Different
It doesn’t look like that’s what will happen again. The second and most likely outcome (judging by polling) is that the Germans are going to go back to doing what they did in the 70s and 80s and put the left-wing SPD in charge. It is possible that they may form a coalition government with the Green Party, which is running third in polling. Currently, The Local projects there will be nine possible coalitions. Nearly all of them have the SPD or Greens in the mix, and four of them have these two parties forming part of a coalition government.
If German taxpayers think they are getting screwed now, they should see what it is like to have a couple of years with the SPD and Greens at the helm. Their answer to Germany’s problems will be to soak the rich and middle class with tax hikes, increased welfare spending, and more integration with the EU, which means more propping up of Greece, Spain, and Italy. I won’t go into details, you can look at them here and read their party platforms, which are easy to find.
It Will Cause Cryptocurrency Market Changes
So, how will this cauldron of crap the SPD and Greens are cooking up going to affect crypto prices? For one, don’t be surprised if oil prices stay high and push up the prices for everything else. The Green Party is no friend of oil, and it is well within the realm of possibility that whoever they are in a coalition with lets them tax oil and gasoline to the limit.
Second, even though inflation is projected to go down next year, that won’t help your savings account, as the SPD and Green’s will tax Germans into oblivion, and your income is unlikely to rise because GDP in Germany is projected to stagnate in 2022.
If Germany’s most successful classes of people are going to be punished for being successful, and if they think their savings are going to be eroded by inflation, you can expect them to invest in cryptocurrencies and gold.
By the end of the year, expect Bitcoin to be up to around $60,000 and expect it to get higher. You can also expect other cryptos and tokens like Litecoin and Ethereum to do the same. Part of this rise in prices will be driven by Germans and other nationalities tired of having their savings eroded.
As long as governments debase their currency and engage in reckless spending and social engineering, expect the prices of cryptocurrency to continually increase in value.