When Bitcoin (BTC) reached its all-time high of $65,000 in April, it felt like the $100,000 mark was the next stop for cryptocurrency. However, the following months changed the market trend, and the entire cryptocurrency market took a steep dive.
The price of Bitcoin dropped by 50% since April, negatively impacting market sentiment and ushering in a dark cloud of disbelief among the retail and institutional investors alike.
Nevertheless, it seems that the tables are turning, as Bitcoin crossed the $40,000 barrier for the first time in six weeks. As such, the prospect for a Bitcoin bull-run has been renewed and while opinions vary, many experts still believe that the $100,000 price can still be reached by the end of 2021.
The Case for $100,000
Why $100,000? It does have a nice ring to it. The round number represents a natural resistance point in any asset’s price climb, but there is more to it. Several prediction models have forecast $100,000 to be a feasible target for the price of Bitcoin in December 2021.
One such example is the known Stock to Flow model created by the anonymous analyst, PlanB. This model takes the deflationary nature of Bitcoin’s issuance rate, which is reduced by half every four years, into account. Here, the Stock is the number of coins in circulation and the flow in the amount being mined each year.
The model has proven to be an accurate prediction tool for the digital asset’s price over the previous market cycles, but Bitcoin has to reach the $100,000 mark before the year ends for it to remain valid.
On-chain Data Spells Bullish Signs for Bitcoin
There are other indicators for price prediction to have in consideration, and some of them are beginning to show promise of an incoming Bullish period. Pedro Febrero, Blockchain Analyst at Quantumeconomics, a company providing analysis, advisory, and money management services for traditional and digital assets, shared his thoughts on the matter, citing two well-known crypto analysts. He stated:
“Regarding Bitcoin reaching $100,000 that’s a tough question. Whether or not BTC will reach $100k this year, we cannot know for sure. If we prolong the time-frame, into let’s say 2-4 years, that’s almost certain. However, on-analysts like William Clemente and Willy Woo point out to the fact that not only are whales accumulating btc but they’re also taking their coins out of exchanges. Shortage in supply usually means price goes up.”
The two on-chain metrics mentioned by Febrero, whale accumulation and exchange outflows, have been heavily observed and analyzed over the last few weeks as they are a known indicator for an upcoming rally for Bitcoin. Cointelegraph recently reported a monthly exchange outflow of roughly 100,000 Bitcoin from centralized exchanges.
These movements show that investors are interested in keeping their coins out of exchanges and keeping them in a safer place for storage, a trend observed both in institutional and retail investors alike. At the time, only 13.2% of circulating BTC is currently held on exchanges, the lowest percentage in 2021.
The Market is Changing
2020 was a wild year, to say the least. However, several factors currently indicate the perfect conditions for renewed growth in the Bitcoin market as reported in June’s Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. The report reads:
“The 2020 halving came amid unprecedented global fiscal and monetary stimulus, along with institutions tilting toward Bitcoin allocations. The chance that the crypto becomes the digital reserve asset and stays the course it’s charted over most of the past decade is increasingly outweighing the loss of a small portion of a portfolio. “
Prediction models have evolved considerably in the last few years as new metrics become available, and different variables gain relevance every day, but the fact is that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been gaining considerable attention from mainstream media and users, which solidifies Bitcoin’s as a strong store of value asset,
Digital assets are beginning to be seen as an almost mandatory investment in different types of investment portfolios. This shift in perceptions makes it much harder to try to come up with accurate predictions as uncharted territory begins to be explored for the new digital asset class.
Is the $100,000 BTC Price Even Possible?
As previously mentioned by Pedro Febrero, the $100,000 mark is attainable, if not by December, then maybe over the next 2/3 years. While this would be an ambitious leap for the remaining four months of the year, we’ve seen it happen before. Over a stretch of just seven months (between September 2020 and April 2021) the price of Bitcoin increased by around 600%, so it is possible that we may see a similar jump in the coming months.