Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its projection that the global stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion in market capitalization by 2028, while trimming its estimate for how much of that growth will translate into demand for U.S. Treasury bills.
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The bank now expects stablecoins to generate between $0.8 trillion and $1 trillion in fresh T-bill demand over that period — a downward revision from earlier, more aggressive estimates.
The revised forecast, reported by CoinTelegraph, reflects a more nuanced view of how stablecoin reserves are allocated. While the headline market cap target remains unchanged, Standard Chartered now acknowledges that not all stablecoin reserves will flow directly into short-dated government debt.
The bank's analysts point to diversification across reserve assets and varying regulatory requirements across jurisdictions as key factors behind the adjustment.
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Why T-Bill Demand Matters
The connection between stablecoins and U.S. government debt has become one of the most closely watched dynamics in both crypto and traditional finance. Major stablecoin issuers — most notably Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) — hold substantial portions of their reserves in Treasury bills, making them among the largest non-sovereign holders of short-dated U.S. debt.
As the stablecoin market grows, so does the structural demand for these instruments.
According to CoinDesk's reporting, Standard Chartered suggests that up to $1 trillion in new T-bill demand from stablecoins could prompt the U.S. Treasury to meaningfully increase its issuance of short-term bills. The bank goes further, arguing that this shift in demand could be significant enough to allow the government to suspend 30-year bond auctions — a striking claim that underscores how large the stablecoin sector's footprint in sovereign debt markets could become.
The logic is straightforward: if stablecoin issuers need to park hundreds of billions of dollars in safe, liquid assets, T-bills are the natural destination. That creates a reliable buyer base for the Treasury at the short end of the yield curve, potentially reducing the government's need to issue longer-duration debt at higher interest rates.
The $2 Trillion Market Cap Thesis
Standard Chartered's $2 trillion stablecoin market cap forecast by 2028 is premised on several converging trends. Regulatory clarity — particularly in the United States, where stablecoin legislation has been a focal point in Congress — is expected to unlock institutional adoption and expand the range of use cases for dollar-denominated digital tokens. The bank also factors in growing demand for stablecoins in cross-border payments, remittances, and as a settlement layer for tokenized financial assets.
The current stablecoin market has already seen significant growth. Tether's USDT remains the dominant player by market share, with Circle's USDC serving as the primary regulated alternative. A wave of new entrants — from traditional banks to fintech companies — has further expanded the competitive landscape. PayPal's PYUSD, for instance, has added another dimension to the market, while several global banks are exploring or piloting their own stablecoin products.
Standard Chartered's maintained conviction on the $2 trillion figure, even while trimming the T-bill demand component, suggests the bank sees stablecoin growth as increasingly diversified in both use case and reserve composition.
Why the T-Bill Estimate Was Trimmed
The reduction from earlier estimates to the $0.8–$1 trillion range reflects a more granular analysis of how stablecoin reserves are actually held. Not all issuers maintain 100% T-bill reserves. Some hold a mix of cash deposits, reverse repurchase agreements, money market funds, and other short-term instruments. Additionally, stablecoins issued outside the U.S. or denominated in non-dollar currencies may not generate any T-bill demand at all.
Regulatory developments also play a role. Depending on how stablecoin reserve requirements are ultimately codified in U.S. and international law, issuers may be required — or permitted — to hold a broader range of qualifying assets. This could dilute the share of reserves flowing into T-bills specifically, even as the overall market grows.
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Implications for U.S. Fiscal Policy
The potential for stablecoins to reshape U.S. debt issuance strategy is a development with implications well beyond the crypto sector. If the Treasury can rely on a growing, structural base of T-bill buyers from the stablecoin industry, it gains additional flexibility in how it finances the federal deficit. Shifting issuance toward shorter maturities — where stablecoin demand is concentrated — could lower the government's overall borrowing costs.
The suggestion that 30-year bond auctions could be suspended, while speculative, highlights the scale of the potential impact. Long-duration bonds are a cornerstone of U.S. debt management, and any shift away from them would represent a significant change in Treasury strategy. Market participants in the fixed-income space would need to adjust to a different supply dynamic across the yield curve.
Standard Chartered projects stablecoins may generate up to $1 trillion in fresh Treasury bill demand by 2028, potentially allowing the U.S. government to ramp up T-bill issuance and suspend 30-year bond auctions.
What to Watch
Several factors will determine whether these projections materialize. The pace and substance of U.S. stablecoin legislation remains the single most important variable — a clear regulatory framework could accelerate institutional adoption, while prolonged uncertainty could slow growth. The competitive dynamics among stablecoin issuers, and whether new entrants capture meaningful market share, will also shape how reserves are allocated.
On the Treasury side, the key question is whether the department explicitly incorporates stablecoin-driven demand into its issuance planning. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) has already acknowledged the growing role of digital assets in capital markets, but formal policy adjustments remain to be seen. How the U.S. government responds to this new source of demand for its debt could have lasting consequences for both the crypto industry and traditional bond markets.
